What is ICM?
The Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a mathematical model that converts tournament chip stacks into real money equity. Unlike cash games where 1 chip = $1, tournament chips have diminishing value - doubling your stack doesn't double your equity.
ICM is crucial for tournament success because it affects every decision, especially near the money bubble and at final tables where pay jumps are significant.
Why Chips Have Diminishing Value
Consider a tournament with 3 players left and the following payouts:
- 1st place: $500
- 2nd place: $300
- 3rd place: $200
If you have 50% of the chips, you won't win 50% of the prize pool ($500). Even with half the chips, you'll only win the tournament about 50% of the time, and you'll finish 2nd or 3rd the other times. Your equity is roughly $350-$380, not $500.
The ICM Implications
ICM creates several strategic adjustments:
| Concept | Explanation | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Premium | Losing chips hurts more than winning helps | Avoid marginal all-ins |
| Bubble Factor | How much more valuable is survival vs chips | Tighten up on bubble |
| Pay Jump Pressure | Bigger pay jumps = more ICM pressure | Final table adjustments |
The shorter your stack, the closer your chip value is to face value. With 5 big blinds, you should play close to chip EV because survival pressure is less relevant - you need chips to have any equity.
Bubble Play Strategy
The money bubble is where ICM pressure peaks for medium stacks:
Big stacks should:
- Apply maximum pressure to medium stacks
- Attack blinds relentlessly
- Avoid confrontations with other big stacks
- Not risk their stack unnecessarily
Medium stacks should:
- Play extremely tight - survival is valuable
- Wait for premium hands
- Let short stacks bust first
- Avoid big stack confrontations
Short stacks should:
- Look for spots to shove and double up
- Chip EV becomes more important
- Don't blind out waiting for premiums
- Attack medium stacks in blinds
Final Table ICM
At final tables, pay jumps create complex ICM situations:
- 3-handed: Every elimination is a huge pay jump
- Consider deals: ICM chops can reduce variance
- Heads-up: ICM disappears - play for first place
- Watch stack sizes: Let medium stacks battle each other
Calculating ICM
While exact ICM calculations are complex, you can estimate:
- Your chip percentage gives your chance of finishing first
- Use the remaining equity for lower places proportionally
- Or simply use an ICM calculator for precise numbers
When to Ignore ICM
ICM isn't always the priority:
- Early tournament: Play for chips, ICM is minimal
- Very short stacked: You need chips to survive
- Heads-up: Winner takes all, only chip EV matters
- Satellite tournaments: Just need to survive to win a seat